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The failure rate across folklore and empirical evidence
The circulating consulting assertions compared to dedicated peer-reviewed empirical studies of European M&A transactions.
| Source | Failure rate cited | What was actually measured | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christensen et al. (2011, HBR) | 70% to 90% | Uncited headline assertion | Folk layer (zero citations) |
| KPMG (1999) | 83% | 107 cross-border deals: 17% created value, 30% preserved, 53% destroyed | Conflates "no value change" with failure |
| German business press (Lippold, etc.) | 60% to 80% | Secondary quotes ("drei von vier scheitern") | Unreferenced secondary media |
| Schoenberg (2006, BJM) | 44% to 56% | 61 British acquisitions of continental European firms, 1988–1990 | 4 independent performance metrics |
| Craninckx & Huyghebaert (2011, EFM) | 38% to 53% | 773 European transactions (listed & private targets) | 2-yr BHAR, EBITDA benchmark, divestments |
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Reference & Evidence
Source: Author's assembly from the cited primary literature and circulating business media: Christensen et al. (2011), reprint R1103B; KPMG (1999); Lippold (2020); Unternehmeredition (2023); Craninckx & Huyghebaert (2011); Schoenberg (2006).
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