← Every exhibit
Which empirical transfer test must precede deploying a predictive model across cohorts?
| Transfer question | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Is the outcome defined the same way? | “Defection” and “profitability” can have different boundaries |
| Is the observation horizon comparable? | Short-term buying and long-term value are not interchangeable |
| Are the input variables available before the action? | A post-outcome signal cannot support a pre-outcome intervention |
| Is the cost boundary comparable? | Revenue, margin, and profit can reverse a priority |
| Is the decision use the same? | Prediction for triage is not prediction for treatment |
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Reference & Evidence
Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.
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