← Every exhibit
Three-Year Financial and Unit Economic Trajectory
| Performance Metric | Year 0 (Broken Baseline) | Year 1 (Stabilization) | Year 2 (Efficiency) | Year 3 (Scaled Excellence) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Enterprise Customers | 400 | 440 | 520 | 680 |
| Average Contract Value (ACV) | \$30,000 | \$34,000 | \$38,000 | \$42,000 |
| Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) | \$12,000,000 | \$14,960,000 | \$19,760,000 | \$28,560,000 |
| Monthly ARPU per Customer | \$2,500 | \$2,833 | \$3,167 | \$3,500 |
| Direct Monthly Cost to Serve (CTS) | \$1,350 | \$950 | \$680 | \$550 |
| Unit Contribution Margin % | 46.0% | 66.5% | 78.5% | 84.3% |
| Monthly Contribution Cash per Account | \$1,150 | \$1,883 | \$2,487 | \$2,950 |
| Fully Loaded CAC per Customer | \$38,000 | \$32,000 | \$27,500 | \$24,500 |
| Contribution CAC Payback Horizon | 33.0 months | 17.0 months | 11.1 months | 8.3 months |
| Annual Customer Retention Rate ($r$) | 78.0% | 85.0% | 90.0% | 92.5% |
| Implied Average Customer Lifespan | 3.2 years | 4.8 years | 7.2 years | 10.5 years |
| 5-Year Discounted Contribution LTV | \$34,800 | \$68,500 | \$108,200 | \$139,800 |
| LTV:CAC Ratio (Contribution Basis) | 0.57x (Insolvent) | 2.14x | 3.93x | 5.71x (World-Class) |
| Operating Cash Flow (Burn / Profit) | -\$7,500,000 | -\$1,800,000 | +\$2,400,000 | +\$8,200,000 |
| Implied ARR Valuation Multiple | 4.0x | 6.0x | 8.0x | 10.5x |
| Enterprise Valuation | \$48,000,000 | \$89,760,000 | \$158,080,000 | \$299,880,000 |
Swipe or scroll horizontally if the table is wider than your screen.
Reference & Evidence
Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.
Related exhibits
-
The unit economics component card
From the essay What are unit economics?
-
Unit Economics RACI Matrix
From the essay What are unit economics?
-
Comprehensive Topical Taxonomy and Architectural Variants
From the essay What are unit economics?