← Every exhibit
Why do observational attribution dashboards report phantom returns?
| Distortion mechanism | Underlying behavioral cause | Dashboard consequence | Strategic commercial impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intent Harvesting | Retargeting bids aggressively on users already in checkout | Reports astronomical ROAS (e.g., 1,500%) | Starves top-funnel acquisition of growth capital |
| Activity Bias | Users browse actively across the web during high buying intent | Ads served during purchase surges claim causal credit | Mistaking correlation for advertising persuasion |
| Cannibalization | Paid search ads intercept users seeking direct brand domains | Paid clicks substitute 1-to-1 for free organic clicks | Converts free organic navigation into recurring cost |
| Cookie & Device Breakage | Cross-device paths cause false unexposed misclassification | Disregards long-cycle offline relationship building | Overweights short-cycle digital retargeting |
| Platform Self-Reporting | Ad networks grade their own performance with view-throughs | Total claimed conversions exceed total company sales | Inflates reported demand beyond real cash inflow |
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Reference & Evidence
Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.