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Figure Figure 1 From the research bench

The sparse-signal decision sheet

Do not let a sparse signal carry a conclusion it cannot support. Record competing explanations, the test, and the smallest reversible resource commitment.

A six-column worksheet for incomplete competitive intelligence: observed public signal, working inference, competing explanation, disconfirming test, reversible resource commitment, and review owner with date.OBSERVED SIGNALWhat was seen,when, and fromwhich publicsource?WORKINGINFERENCEWhat might thesignal mean? Keepthis separate fromthe observation.COMPETINGEXPLANATIONWhat else couldproduce the samesignal?DISCONFIRMINGTESTWhat new publicevidence orobservation wouldweaken the inference?REVERSIBLECOMMITMENTMonitor, learn,protect or actreversibly.REVIEW OWNERAND DATEWho can revisethe inferenceand when?A sparse signal earns a resource response only when the inference, competing explanation, test, and reversal condition are visible.A blank test means the signal is not yet decision-ready.
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Reference & Evidence

Source: Author's decision worksheet grounded in Cavallo et al. (2021), Akerlof (1970), Goodman (1972), Phelps, Chan, and Kapsalis (2001), and Stein, Smith, and Lancioni (2013). The sheet is a bounded-inference framework, not a validated intelligence system.

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